ORIGINAL ARTICLE
REVISTA DE LA FACULTAD DE MEDICINA HUMANA 2024 - Universidad Ricardo Palma
1 Faculty of Human Medicine, Universidad Ricardo Palma. Lima, Peru.
2 Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Biomédicas, Universidad Ricardo Palma. Lima, Peru.
a Surgeon
b Internal Medicine Physician
ABSTRACT
Introduction: Hyperglycemia on hospital admission may be a useful tool to predict poor outcomes
in COVID-19 patients.
Objective: To determine if hyperglycemia on hospital admission constitutes a prognostic factor
for poor outcomes.
Methods: An observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study was conducted at the Hospital
Regional de Moquegua. Medical records of 640 randomly selected patients hospitalized with confirmed
COVID-19 during the first two waves of the pandemic were reviewed. Variables included poor outcomes,
respiratory sequelae, admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and death. Hyperglycemia on admission
was defined as blood glucose >140 mg/dL. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed using
Poisson regression models with robust variances to find the crude and adjusted relative risks (RRa) with
their respective 95% confidence intervals (CI95%).
Results: Of the patients, 36.9% were 60 years or older, 58.9% were male, and 10.2% had diabetes
mellitus. Hyperglycemia on admission was present in 34.7% of the patients. Hyperglycemia was
significantly associated with poor outcomes (RRa = 5.65; CI95%: 3.72-8.62; p < 0.001), respiratory
sequelae (RRa = 1.96; CI95%: 1.74-2.21; p < 0.001), ICU admission (RRa = 3.68; CI95%: 2.03-6.69; p
< 0.001), and death (RRa = 1.57; CI95%: 1.22-2.02; p = 0.001).
Conclusion: Hyperglycemia on admission is a significant prognostic factor for poor outcomes in
COVID-19 patients. Careful monitoring of these patients is essential.
Keywords: COVID-19; Diabetes Mellitus; Hyperglycemia; Prognosis; Risk (Source: MeSH NLM)
RESUMEN
Introducción: La hiperglicemia al ingreso hospitalario podría ser una buena herramienta para
predecir evolución desfavorable en pacientes con COVID-19.
Objetivo: Determinar si la hiperglicemia al ingreso hospitalario constituye un factor pronóstico
de evolución desfavorable.
Métodos: Se realizó un estudio observacional, analítico, de cohorte retrospectivo en el Hospital
Regional de Moquegua. Se revisaron de manera aleatoria historias clínicas de 640 pacientes
hospitalizados con COVID-19 confirmado durante las primeras dos olas de la pandemia. Las variables
incluyeron evolución desfavorable, secuelas respiratorias, ingreso a la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos
(UCI), y fallecimiento. La hiperglicemia al ingreso se definió como glicemia >140 mg/dL. Se
realizaron análisis bivariados y multivariados utilizando modelos de regresión de Poisson con varianzas
robustas para hallar el riesgo relativo crudo y ajustado (RRa) con sus respectivos IC95%.
Resultados: El 36,9% tuvo 60 o más años, el 58,9% fue del sexo masculino y el 10,2% tuvo diabetes
mellitus. El 34,7% de los pacientes presentaron hiperglicemia al ingreso. La hiperglicemia se asoció
significativamente con una evolución desfavorable (RRa = 5,65; IC95%: 3,72-8,62; p < 0,001), secuelas
respiratorias (RRa = 1,96; IC95%: 1,74-2,21; p < 0,001), ingreso a UCI (RRa = 3,68; IC95%: 2,03-6,69;
p < 0,001), y fallecimiento (RRa = 1,57; IC95%: 1,22-2,02; p = 0,001).
Conclusión: La hiperglicemia al ingreso es un factor pronóstico significativo para evolución
desfavorable en pacientes con COVID-19. Es esencial monitorear cuidadosamente a estos pacientes.
Palabras clave: COVID-19; Diabetes Mellitus; Hiperglucemia; Pronóstico; Riesgo (Fuente: DeCS
BIREME).
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, has created an unprecedented global health crisis since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. This disease is characterized by a wide range of clinical manifestations, from mild symptoms to severe complications such as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis, and septic shock, which can lead to multiple organ dysfunction and death 1. In Peru, the first confirmed case of COVID-19 was reported on March 6, 2020. Despite measures implemented to contain the virus, the mortality rate reached 10.06 deaths per 10,000 inhabitants by the end of 2020, with regions like Ica, Callao, Moquegua, and Lima being the most affected 2. In particular, the province of Mariscal Nieto in Moquegua had a high incidence of mortality, with a fatality rate of 891.9 per 100,000 inhabitants, significantly above the national average 3, 4.
The unfavorable progression of COVID-19 has been linked to several risk factors, including cardiovascular disease, obesity, and diabetes mellitus 3. Hyperglycemia, in both patients with preexisting diabetes and those without a history of the disease, has been identified as an independent predictor of mortality 5, 6. SARS-CoV-2 infection can induce hyperglycemia through the exacerbation of the inflammatory response, oxidative stress, and endothelial dysfunction, which in turn compromises the patient's immune response, increasing the risk of severe complications and death.
However, although hyperglycemia has been recognized as a significant risk factor, there is an urgent need for studies that specifically examine its role as a predictor of poor outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in specific regional contexts. Most previous research has focused on international cohorts or large urban centers, leaving a gap in understanding the impact of hyperglycemia in smaller populations or less-studied areas like Moquegua, Peru. Precisely identifying hyperglycemia as a prognostic marker could improve clinical management strategies and allow for early and personalized intervention.
This study aims to determine whether hyperglycemia at hospital admission constitutes a prognostic factor for unfavorable outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients at the Hospital Regional de Moquegua.
Study design and area
An observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study was conducted by reviewing the medical records
of patients hospitalized in the "COVID Area" with a confirmed diagnosis through serological and
radiological tests for COVID-19 at the Hospital Regional de Moquegua, located in Cercado, Mariscal
Nieto, Moquegua, Peru. The study period covered the first wave (epidemiological week 10 to 48, from
March 8-13, 2020 to November 29 - December 4, 2020) and the second wave of the pandemic (epidemiological
week 52 to 30, from December 27-31, 2020 to July 26-31, 2021).
Population and sample
The population consisted of 1,400 medical records of patients hospitalized in the COVID Area. Applying
exclusion criteria, a total of 1,350 records were obtained, and 640 medical records were selected
through simple random probabilistic sampling. The sample size was calculated with an expected relative
risk of mortality of 1.23 for hyperglycemia exposure, according to a previous study 7, and
a mortality rate of 46% in non-exposed individuals 8; with a power of 80%
and a confidence
level of 95%. Patients who met the following criteria were included: complete sociodemographic data, age
over 18 years, blood glucose test at hospital admission, confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis with serological
and/or radiological tests, and patient prognosis. Pregnant women and patients with incomplete data were
excluded.
Variables and Instruments
The study variables included unfavorable outcomes as the dependent variable, defined by the presence of
respiratory sequelae (dyspnea and/or pulmonary fibrosis without a history of chronic respiratory
disease), admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and/or death. Hyperglycemia at admission, defined
as a blood glucose level greater than 140 mg/dL, was the main independent variable. Covariates included
sociodemographic data (age), medical history (body mass index [BMI], hypertension, and diabetes
mellitus), and clinical characteristics at admission (respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, and dyspnea).
Procedures
Patients hospitalized in the "COVID Area" of the Hospital Regional de Moquegua during the first and
second waves of the pandemic were identified. The identification of patients was based on hospital
records, ensuring they met the previously established inclusion criteria. Once the study population was
identified, the 640 participating medical records were randomly selected using a statistical program.
Relevant information was recorded on a data collection sheet at the hospital where the study was
conducted.
Statistical Analysis
The information was processed in Excel, and statistical analysis was performed using SPSS version 27.
Descriptive statistics were calculated for all variables, including frequencies and percentages for
categorical variables and median for age. Bivariate analysis was used to evaluate the association
between hyperglycemia at admission and unfavorable outcomes, as well as other covariates such as age,
BMI, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, and dyspnea. Crude (RRc) and
adjusted (RRa) risk ratios and their 95% confidence intervals (CI95%) were estimated using Poisson
regression models with robust variances to determine the strength of the association between independent
variables and unfavorable outcomes. Additionally, a p-value of less than 0.05 was considered
significant.
Ethical Aspects
This study was authorized by the Research and Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Human Medicine at
Universidad Ricardo Palma (Approval Certificate: PG-58-021) and the ethics committee of the Teaching and
Research Support Office at the Hospital Regional de Moquegua. As it was based on the review and
recording of data from medical records, it posed no risks and did not require informed consent.
Patients' personal data were handled confidentially.
Of the 640 participants, most patients (63.1%) were under 60 years of age, while 36.9% were 60 years or older; the median age was 53 years. 58.9% were male. 39.8% of the patients had a BMI greater than 30 kg/m². Regarding comorbidities, 14.1% had hypertension, and 10.2% had diabetes mellitus. Additionally, 90.5% of the patients were admitted with a respiratory rate of less than 30 breaths per minute, and 53.8% had an oxygen saturation of 92% or less. Finally, dyspnea was recorded in 55.9% of the patients (Table 1).
72.8% of the patients had a positive molecular test, 12.7% had an antigen test, and the rest had rapid tests. Likewise, 77.2% had chest X-rays, and 22.8% had CT scans with disease findings.
Variables | Category | Frequency | Percentage (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Age (years) | Under 60 | 404 | 63.1 |
60 or older | 236 | 36.9 | |
Sex | Male | 378 | 58.9 |
Female | 263 | 41.1 | |
BMI (kg/m²) | Under 30 | 285 | 60.2 |
30 or higher | 255 | 39.8 | |
Hypertension | Yes | 90 | 14.1 |
Diabetes mellitus | Yes | 65 | 10.2 |
Respiratory rate (breaths/min) | Under 30 | 579 | 90.5 |
Over 30 | 61 | 9.5 | |
Oxygen saturation (%) | Over 92 | 296 | 46.3 |
92 or below | 344 | 53.8 | |
Dyspnea | Yes | 358 | 55.9 |
No | 282 | 44.1 |
BMI: Body Mass Index
In Table 2, it can be observed that 34.7% of the patients had a blood glucose level at admission greater
than 140 mg/dL, while 65.3% had a blood glucose level less than or equal to 140 mg/dL. Regarding the
prognosis variables, 57.8% of the patients experienced an unfavorable outcome, 25.5% had respiratory
sequelae, 8.4% required ICU admission, and 23.9% died.
Category | Frequency | Percentage |
---|---|---|
Blood glucose at admission (mg/dL) | ||
Greater than 140 | 222 | 34.7% |
140 or less | 418 | 65.3% |
Prognosis variables | ||
Unfavorable outcome | 370 | 57.8% |
Respiratory sequelae | 163 | 25.5% |
ICU admission | 54 | 8.4% |
Death | 153 | 23.9% |
Total | 640 | 100% |
ICU: Intensive Care Unit
In Table 3, it can be seen that blood glucose levels at admission greater than 140
mg/dL are significantly associated with unfavorable outcomes (CRR = 6.62, 95% CI
4.35-10.20, p < 0.001), respiratory sequelae (CRR = 2.26, 95% CI 2.00-2.56, p <
0.001), ICU admission (CRR = 3.47, 95% CI 2.03-5.92, p < 0.001), and death (CRR =
2.23, 95% CI 1.70-2.93, p < 0.001). Age 60 years or older also shows a significant
association with unfavorable outcomes (CRR = 2.51, 95% CI 1.93-3.25, p < 0.001),
respiratory sequelae (CRR = 1.71, 95% CI 1.51-1.94, p < 0.001), and death (CRR =
4.24, 95% CI 3.11-5.79, p < 0.001). Respiratory rate greater than or equal to 30
breaths per minute is associated with unfavorable outcomes (CRR = 4.63, 95% CI
2.16-10.00, p < 0.001), respiratory sequelae (CRR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.48-1.85, p <
0.001), ICU admission (CRR = 2.43, 95% CI 1.32-4.46, p = 0.004), and death (CRR =
2.92, 95% CI 2.24-3.81, p < 0.001). Additionally, oxygen saturation less than or equal
to 92% is related to unfavorable outcomes (CRR = 2.25, 95% CI 1.85-2.74, p < 0.001)
and death (CRR = 4.20, 95% CI 2.84-6.22, p < 0.001).
Variables | Unfavorable outcome | Respiratory sequelae | admission | Death | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARR | CI95% | p value | ARR | CI95% | p value | CRR | CI95% | p value | CRR | CI95% | p value | |
Blood glucose at admission (mg/dL) | ||||||||||||
140 or less | ref | ref | ref | ref | ||||||||
Greater than 140 | 6.62 | 4.35-10.20 | <0.001 | 2.26 | 2.00-2.56 | <0.001 | 3.47 | 2.03-5.92 | <0.001 | 2.23 | 1.70-2.93 | <0.001 |
Age (years) | Under 60 | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
60 or older | 2.51 | 1.93-3.25 | <0.001 | 1.71 | 1.51-1.94 | <0.001 | 0.44 | 0.23-0.83 | 0.012 | 4.24 | 3.11-5.79 | <0.001 |
BMI (kg/m²) | Under 30 | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
30 or higher | 1.00 | 0.84-1.22 | 0.925 | 1.01 | 0.88-1.15 | 0.925 | 2.04 | 1.22-3.41 | 0.007 | 0.85 | 0.63-1.13 | 0.263 |
Hypertension | No | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
Yes | 1.54 | 1.10-2.15 | 0.013 | 1.28 | 1.10-1.49 | <0.001 | 0.49 | 0.18-1.32 | 0.158 | 1.81 | 1.34-2.46 | <0.001 |
Diabetes mellitus | No | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
Yes | 1.49 | 1.01-2.20 | 0.044 | 1.26 | 1.06-1.49 | 0.009 | 0.71 | 0.26-1.90 | 0.492 | 1.11 | 0.72-1.71 | 0.650 |
Respiratory rate (breaths/min) | Under 30 | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
30 or higher | 4.63 | 2.16-10.00 | <0.001 | 1.66 | 1.48-1.85 | <0.001 | 2.43 | 1.32-4.46 | 0.004 | 2.92 | 2.24-3.81 | <0.001 |
Oxygen saturation (%) | Over 92 | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
92 or less | 2.25 | 1.85-2.74 | <0.001 | 1.84 | 1.58-2.14 | <0.001 | 1.35 | 0.80-2.29 | 0.260 | 4.20 | 2.84-6.22 | <0.001 |
Dyspnea | No | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
Yes | 1.93 | 1.60-2.33 | <0.001 | 1.66 | 1.43-1.94 | <0.001 | 1.87 | 1.07-3.29 | 0.029 | 2.08 | 1.51-2.86 | <0.001 |
ICU: Intensive Care Unit. CRR: Crude Relative Risk. 95% CI: 95% Confidence Interval. BMI: Body Mass Index.
On the other hand, it is observed that, in the adjusted analysis, blood glucose levels at admission greater than 140 mg/dL are significantly associated with unfavorable outcomes (ARR = 5.65, 95% CI 3.72-8.62, p < 0.001), respiratory sequelae (ARR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.74-2.21, p < 0.001), ICU admission (ARR = 3.68, 95% CI 2.03-6.69, p < 0.001), and death (ARR = 1.57, 95% CI 1.22-2.02, p = 0.001). Age 60 years or older also shows a significant association with unfavorable outcomes (ARR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.43-2.38, p < 0.001), respiratory sequelae (ARR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.25-1.60, p < 0.001), and death (ARR = 3.05, 95% CI 2.20-4.24, p < 0.001). Respiratory rate greater than or equal to 30 breaths per minute is associated with unfavorable outcomes (ARR = 2.57, 95% CI 1.27-5.21, p = 0.009) and death (ARR = 1.77, 95% CI 1.37-2.28, p < 0.001). Additionally, oxygen saturation less than or equal to 92% is related to unfavorable outcomes (ARR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.09-1.58, p = 0.004) and death (ARR = 2.36, 95% CI 1.56-3.59, p < 0.001) (Table 4).
Variables | Unfavorable outcome | Respiratory sequelae | admission | Death | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARR | CI95% | p value | ARR | CI95% | p value | CRR | CI95% | p value | CRR | CI95% | p value | |
Blood glucose at admission (mg/dL) | ||||||||||||
140 or less | ref | ref | ref | ref | ||||||||
Greater than 140 | 5.65 | 3.72-8.62 | <0.001 | 1.96 | 1.74-2.21 | <0.001 | 3.68 | 2.03-6.69 | <0.001 | 1.57 | 1.22-2.02 | 0.001 |
Age (years) | Under 60 | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
60 or older | 1.85 | 1.43-2.38 | <0.001 | 1.41 | 1.25-1.60 | <0.001 | 0.41 | 0.19-0.87 | 0.021 | 3.05 | 2.20-4.24 | <0.001 |
BMI (kg/m²) | Under 30 | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
30 or higher | 1.06 | 0.91-1.22 | 0.461 | 1.07 | 0.95-1.20 | 0.283 | 1.59 | 0.92-2.74 | 0.099 | 1.06 | 0.81-1.38 | 0.694 |
Hypertension | No | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
Yes | 1.03 | 0.74-1.44 | 0.858 | 1.04 | 0.89-1.21 | 0.640 | 0.70 | 0.25-2.01 | 0.512 | 1.17 | 0.86-1.58 | 0.325 |
Diabetes mellitus | No | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
Yes | 0.69 | 0.48-0.99 | 0.440 | 0.95 | 0.80-1.12 | 0.539 | 0.55 | 0.18-1.66 | 0.290 | 0.84 | 0.55-1.28 | 0.419 |
Respiratory rate (breaths/min) | Under 30 | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
30 or higher | 2.57 | 1.27-5.21 | 0.009 | 1.19 | 1.05-1.34 | 0.006 | 1.71 | 0.83-3.52 | 0.146 | 1.77 | 1.37-2.28 | <0.001 |
Oxygen saturation (%) | Over 92 | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
92 or les | 1.32 | 1.09-1.58 | 0.004 | 1.31 | 1.14-1.51 | <0.001 | 0.93 | 0.49-1.75 | 0.817 | 2.36 | 1.56-3.59 | <0.001 |
Dyspnea | No | ref | ref | ref | ref | |||||||
Yes | 1.32 | 1.12-1.56 | 0.001 | 1.32 | 1.16-1.51 | <0.001 | 1.61 | 0.88-2.95 | 0.122 | 1.36 | 1.01-1.82 | 0.042 |
ICU: Intensive Care Unit. CRR: Crude Relative Risk. 95% CI: 95% Confidence Interval. BMI: Body Mass Index.
Authorship contributions:
SLCT participated in the conceptualization, research, methodology, resources, and
drafting
of the original manuscript. SIC participated in the conceptualization, research,
methodology, resources, and drafting of the original manuscript. Both authors approved
the
final version for publication.
Financing:
Self-funded
Declaration of conflict of interest:
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Received:
January 23, 2024
Approved:
April 29, 2024
Correspondence author:
Shellsy Laura Cuba-Ticona
Address:
Calle Arequipa 637, Moquegua, Mariscal Nieto, Moquegua
Phone:
(+51) 965445651
E-mail:
shell.ct1997@hotmail.com
Article published by the Journal of the faculty of Human Medicine of the Ricardo Palma University. It is an open access article, distributed under the terms of the Creatvie Commons license: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International, CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), that allows non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is duly cited. For commercial use, please contact revista.medicina@urp.edu.pe.