Severity prognostic factors in patients with acute pancreatitis in Hospital Nacional Sergio E. Bernales

Factores pronósticos de severidad en pacientes con pancreatitis aguda en el servicio de gastroenterología del Hospital Nacional Sergio E. Bernales durante el periodo junio 2016-junio 2018

Abstract

Objective: To determine the prognostic factors of severity in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) at the Hospital Nacional Sergio E. Bernales during the period June 2016 to June 2018. Methods: Study of cases and controls, being the cases patients with AP moderately severe or severe and controls those of mild AP. The medical records were reviewed to apply the APACHE-II score. Chi- square was used and the ORs were obtained with their respective 95% CI. SPSS 25 program was used. Results: 162 medical records were reviewed. 54 (33.3%) patients developed AP moderately severe or severe and 108 (66.7%) had mild AP. Of the patients with AP moderately severe or severe, 55.6% were men; while in mild AP the female sex was predominant with 91.7%. The majority were of biliary origin (83.3%). There was a predominance of mild AP. AP moderately severe or severe was associated with being over 60 years old (OR: 3.10; 95% CI: 1.26-7.65; p= 0.011), presenting pleural effusion (OR: 7.78 95% CI: 5.745-54.418 ; p <0.001), hematocrit>40% (OR: 4.17; 95% CI: 2.07-8.39; p <0.001) and APACHE score ≥8 (OR: 7.88; 95% CI: 3.77-16.45; p<0.001). Conclusions: The factors associated with the severity of pancreatitis were age, presenting pleural effusion, hematocrit> 40% and APACHE score ≥8.