Estimate of the excess of the total deaths reported in 2020 versus the reported deaths from COVID-19 (SARS-CoV2) in Peru during the months of March, April and May 2020.

Estimación del exceso de muertes reportadas total en el año 2020 versus reporte de fallecidos por Covid-19 (Sars-Cov2) en el Perú durante los meses de Marzo, Abril y Mayo del 2020.

Abstract

Methods: We compared the gap between the National Death System (SINADEF) with the oficial reported deaths from COVID -19 from march 1st to  may 31th, 2020; Violent deaths (homicide, suicide, traffic accident; other accidents and unknown deaths) were excluded. To estimate the deaths baseline was used a seasonal linear regression,  from January 1st, 2017 to December 31th, 2019 with a 95% confidence intervals. The deaths reported in the National Death System was compared with the baseline deaths. The excess of deaths reported was estimated by “Simple Difference method”. Results: The research outcomes showed that the excess of total deaths, from 1st March to 31th may, 2020 is 2.24 times greater than the oficial number of deaths reported by COVID-19. Conclusions: The finded differences may be associated directly with a unregistered deaths by COVID-19 and another general death causes related with failures in our Public Health Sistem during the Pandemic period.